Stochastic Simulation of the Economic Impact of Cattle Brucellosis in Cote d Ivoire
The aim of this study was to simulate Ivorian cattle demographic process and the loss of cattle productions attributable to brucellosis over a 10-year (2005-2015) period. A discrete, sex and age-structured stochastic demographic model to simulate cattle population growth and estimate the costs of brucellosis infection, comparing meat, milk and hide production and live cattle asset value with and without the disease scenarios was developed. The cattle population was estimated to be about 1,885,123 and 1,906,961 with and without the disease in 2015, respectively. An overall intrinsic growth rate of 1.8% and 17.4% meat offtake rate were derived. The cumulated net present cost attributable to brucellosis was estimated at FCFA 14,455 × 106 (95% CI: 6,278-22,906), which is the equivalent of USD 23,662 × 103 (95% CI: 10,276-37,496), at a rate of FCFA 579.7 per USD in 2015. The incremental live cattle asset value was projected to FCFA 3,826 × 106 (95% CI: 1-7,623) or USD 6,340 × 103 (1,657-12,629) in 2015. These cost estimates were likely due by chance, probably because of the inaccuracy or high variability of input production parameters and prices. This is the first stochastic projection model for the Ivorian cattle, and can be used in the future with more accurate and context specific input data for better cost estimations of brucellosis and any other zoonotic disease.